Finally, it seems we have turned a corner with theCOVID-19 pandemicin the United States.
More than 117 million individualshave been fully vaccinated.
Even epidemiologists are starting to feel some cautious optimism.
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Globally, though, the world is still in a rough place.
Global vaccination rates remain low, and access to vaccination in low- and middle-income countries is terrible.
The Biden administration has called for awaiver of intellectual property rightsso that developing countries can produce their own vaccines.
In the meantime, the pandemic continues.
How will we know when this global disease outbreak is over?
And what comes next?
Now, once a pathogen becomes a pandemic, there are three possible trajectories it could take.
If not, that could leave individuals unprotected as their vaccine immunity wanes.
So eradication is out, and elimination would be very difficult, at least at this point in time.
That leaves us with the third possibility: an endemic virus.
This means it will be present at a low level in the population for the foreseeable future.
This endemic conclusion is consistent with the outcome of the 2009 H1N1 swine flu pandemic.
This has come true.
But this will not be the end of the virus.
Most history of medicine focuses onepidemics:the visible part of outbreaks in human communities, she says.
And most human communities have always only been able to see things at small scales.
But that doesnt mean those outbreaks were at their most severe the entire timedifferent phases were involved.
Even with effective vaccines, the end of the pandemic is not predetermined.
This is a scenario that could be replicated with SARS-CoV-2.
Lessons learned
Once the pandemic ends, will the general population continue to think about it?
Post-pandemic, says Dr. Kenny, as a rule, things go back to normal pretty fast.
Dr. Najera points out thatmisinformation can spreadfaster than the virus did.
But it has had the largest immediate global economic impact of any pandemic in history, he says.
He explains that the interconnected global economy exacerbated the impact of stay-at-home orders and travel restrictions.
Still, she cautions, We have seen what a relatively low-mortality event looks like in real life.
This is not a computer simulation or a movie.
We have been devastated in ways we will only be learning about in the coming months and years.
I hope we pay attention.
